Before you read the following, you need to know 2 very important things about my personality.

(1) I am a CONTINGENCY PLANNER.  This is different from being a "prepper".  When I don't know, I look at various scenarios, begin with something close to the worst case, and then begin working "backwards" to determine a course of action and various checkpoints along the path.  It's something innate, I can't turn it off, it happens in the background of my thinking out of my awareness and comes to the fore either when there is a trigger or when there is some semblence of a plan/path.  I DO NOT spend my time obsessing about such things, they just come to mind.

(2) I am an INFRASTRUCTURE guy.  Creating sustainable robust systems with some level of redundancy so that the system can maintain itself as much as possible without significant maintenance and support input.  This is partially by training and experience and has been somewhat intentionally developed but is also fairly "innate" to how my brain works.

I say those things because I don't want anyone thinking I'm sitting in my office freaking out and obsessing about the following.  These are merely thoughts that came to the fore as I continually review and survey the current situation, project into the future and assess my own available resources.  These are, in essence, "shower thoughts."  (You know, those ideas that pop into your head when you aren't really directly thinking about anything.)

So, with that LENGTHY introduction - and looking toward the future a few things come to mind:

(1) I'm sure you've been paying attention, but the summary consensus of everything I'm seeing is, we are not talking WEEKS to the end of this, we are talking MONTHS.  They have bypassed animal trials for a vaccine, and the first human trials began earlier this week.  The head health guy in the Trump administration laid out a timeline that indicates vaccine readiness in about 18 months **IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL**  The UK report which (supposedly) put the fear of God into the country's officials took this into consideration when they created their report about "flattening the curve."  THE BEST they say we can do once we get the virus under control is 2 months of isolation, 1 month of "freedom" in alternating patterns.  2 months isolated, 1 month out..... until a vaccine is created or until general 'herd immunity' kicks in.  The problem is, we don't yet know about reinfection (whether the same person can be infected twice).

(2) Most areas are HEAVILY reliant upon a costly food distribution system that requires manpower, which requires paychecks, which requires a certain amount of wealth and liquidity to be maintained.  We have already seen the markets dive, the Fed has pushed out as much liquidity as possible, but nobody is working.  $3,000 from Uncle Sam isn't going to last long with the typical NECESSARY spending in each household in our congregation (electricity, phone, mortgage/rent, etc).  Even if everybody cut out luxuries, $3,000 can be stretched only so far - and it won't last 18 months.

These are the primary challenges.  On the perhiphery we have 

(3) the yet unlikely but still possible failure of critical infrastructure (electrical grid - which would massively disrupt communications --- oil and gas infrastructure affecting travel and transportation of goods  --- Banking and money supply --- etc -- etc -- etc.) but they need to at least be kept in perhipheral view.  Anything considered as an action step from this point forward should be made with the possibility of failure of this critical infrastructure. 

[[REMEMBER: I'm *NOT* a prepper, but they have a point when comes to the precariousness of the house of cards upon which western industrialized civilization is built.]]

We have a number of ASSETS as well:

(1) The North American planting season has largely not begun.  We have a window of opportunity before crops need to be put into the ground, and a NARROW window of opportunity before seedlings need to be prepared to be transferred.

(2) We have an abundance of HUMAN CAPITAL (muscles, backs, arms, legs, etc.) sitting idle and (if projections hold) who will be idle for the forseeable future.

(3) We have a generation (at least in our rural areas) that know BASIC farming - not mass production - but basic, basic farming and garden planting and animal husbandry.  Consider, another 10-15 years, and that knowledge would be mostly a memory.

(4) We have a national network of congregations FAIRLY well distributed around the country.  Still some very remote areas, but MOST congregations have a neighbor within a day's walk.

With this, a certain path begins to emerge.  There is lots of hope and talk about the economy bouncing back.  If it does, added food security will still be a blessing.  But if it does not, things could certainly get challenging for our members and our congregations in the months to come.  The stimulous will only go so far and will bridge people for only so long.  Over time, more and more people will be unable to afford the necessities.  By the harvest season, if things go badly, the need could be great.

I propose that we consider the distinct possibility of economic collapse and prepare accordingly.

Congregations in rural areas should begin making plans to use aerable land for production crops first targetting the food needs of the members of their congregation, and also considering the need that will exist in their community.

The use of heritage seeds that can be gathered from the produce and used in subsequent years should be considered first.  The availability and ability to apply commercial pesticides and weed control products should be considered unlikely.  Using hoes and garden rakes, younger members of the congregation can do weed control.  Traditional pest control procedures tend to be labor intensive, but low cost (regular spraying with common and inexpensive remedies).  I don't know all of the details, but I'm sure within our congregations we still have a tremendous storehouse of knowledge about how things "used to be done" before all the modern hybrid and GMO seeds came on the market.  Decentralization is one aspect to consider - and diversification of the types of plants in each location.

Beginning to scout locations now and seeking out seed suppliers would be vital to making this work.  Planning for irrigation and also for field drainage will also be key as those farmers I've spoken with in my area say we will have a wet year again like last year.

The time window is limited, but still large enough to pull this off.

Next is distribution - using the network of congregations in our Synod, we could reasonably establish a transportation network for produce and even other items (such as meat, poultry, even dairy if we were careful) -- all outside and apart from the normal distribution network.

If we make such plans and don't need them, oh well.  Maybe we can leave the plans for those who come after us if/when such is needed in the future.  If we fail to make such plans, by the time we realize and understand the need, it will be too late.